Expect Persistent Pessimism When the Next Bull Market Starts

Expect Persistent Pessimism When the Next Bull Market Starts

Whenever this bear market (a prolonged, fundamentally driven broad equity market decline of at least -20%) ends—and it may have by the time you read this—we expect few to believe it. Even after data later—potentially much later—start to reflect improving economic...
Will High and Rising Unemployment Derail an Equity Market Recovery?

Will High and Rising Unemployment Derail an Equity Market Recovery?

The economic disruptions tied to the world’s well-intended coronavirus response have wreaked havoc on jobs. Millions filed for unemployment benefits in America, Spain and Italy in March and early April.i One million Canadians lost their jobs at around the same time,...
Is ‘Home Country Bias’ Ramping Up Your Equity Risk?

Is ‘Home Country Bias’ Ramping Up Your Equity Risk?

The decade-long global bull market ended suddenly and dramatically in February, as the shutdown of businesses in reaction to COVID-19’s spread caused massive economic disruptions across the globe. The declines have been swift and jarring, which likely has many equity...
To See Through Big Numbers, Just Do Small Math

To See Through Big Numbers, Just Do Small Math

Whenever there is news coverage of events with a financial impact, we see big numbers. The Australian wildfires are estimated to have caused A$4.4 billion in damages so far.i Germany’s budget surplus hit €13.5 billion in 2019.ii Italy has to sell €50 billion worth of...